March Madness: The Illusion of Prediction
Ian Murray, LCMHC
This is finally the year. 2025 is the year I fill out my bracket and win. I may be the first person to fill out a perfect bracket. This situation may sound like something your friends say or tell yourself year after year to only face the harsh reality that after the first round, your March Madness bracket is busted. No matter how many times we tell ourselves we won't get sucked into the March Madness bracket, it still happens. If this sounds like you and your closest friends, don't worry; you are not alone. In fact, this illusion of being able to predict the tournament stems from a phenomenon that is present in our everyday life. This year, we can take the opportunity to use our bracket to improve our lives, not just convince ourselves next year will be different.
This phenomenon is called the prediction fallacy, where our brain tricks us into believing we can predict the outcome of something with certainty. March Madness perfectly embodies this fallacy. Filling out brackets is often fun, with minor consequences, so if we fall victim to the prediction fallacy, it's not a huge deal. However, prediction fallacies often show up in our everyday lives, and it's important we understand them and their impact on our lives.
Our brain will try and convince us that we can predict something with certainty. This feeling of certainty is based on our emotions, past experiences, and the information we have in front of us. However, there is no way to predict what will truly happen. For instance, most people know that filling out a winning bracket in a group is complex, and filling out a perfect bracket is about 1 in 9.2 quintillion. Yet, we place bets, fill out brackets, or enter bracket competitions each year, predicting this will be our year. Often, our brains predict our expected performance based on data that doesn't actually affect outcomes. Maybe you were close to winning last year, this year and feel you know the teams better, or you studied each team's stats and wins, or this year you didn't watch at all and feel going in without data will help you not overthink the games. March Madness is a good opportunity to pay attention to the prediction fallacy and practice reducing its impact in everyday life.
Our brain creates this same fallacy in all facets of our lives, predicting promotions, pay increases, sports outcomes, dating, tests, or other results as a certain outcome. As you fill out your bracket, notice any thoughts like "I just know…" or "I'm certain that," or "there is no way," as these are signs of prediction fallacy. Like the complexity of life, like March, madness is complex and near impossible to predict. Resentment, discouragement, and frustration can result from getting caught up in the fallacy of prediction. Instead of focusing on the exact outcome, we must consider how we approach life challenges, including our brackets. Rather than concentrate on predicting an outcome, come up with processes and steps that help you gather as much information as possible, adjust your predictions when new information arises, and let feelings of certainty come and go.
This year, we can limit our attempts to predict the future. Instead, we can focus on what we can control, what information we seek, and how we respond to our feelings. Good luck, and happy March Madness.
March Madness brings excitement, but it can also bring stress—especially when the game is close! While you cheer on your team, why not find your own Coping Champion? Try our Coping Strategies Bracket to discover your ultimate stress-busting technique! Will deep breathing, music, or movement come out on top? Play along and find out!